Overall team quality
Strong Alabama advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 1
East CarolinaatAlabama
East Carolina10
Alabama48
CALLED
SharpTake projected Alabama at 79%. Alabama won.
ProjectedAlabama by 14.5
ActualAlabama by 38
Difference23.5 pts
Market spreadAlabama -27.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: East Carolina +27.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
East Carolina 21%Alabama 79%
SharpTake projects Alabama to win.
AlabamaProjected winner
79%Win probability
Alabama by 14.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Alabama
Alabama's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Alabama. Alabama also has the edge in big-play ability and down-to-down efficiency, while East Carolina's running-game efficiency pushes the other way.
Big-play ability
Slight Alabama advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight Alabama advantage
Running-game efficiency
East Carolina offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Alabama run game
EDGEAlabama offenseEast Carolina defense
Alabama gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while East Carolina allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors East Carolina.
Rushing Success Rate · 40.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 36.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
East Carolina explosive plays
EDGEEast Carolina offenseAlabama defense
East Carolina creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Alabama allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Alabama.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.138Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.230Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
East Carolina disruption vs Alabama
EDGEAlabama disruption allowedEast Carolina disruption created
Alabama avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while East Carolina creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors East Carolina.
Havoc Rate allowed · 13.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
East Carolina team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Alabama team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
- Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.