Down-to-down efficiency
Auburn advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 1
BaylorvsAuburn
Baylor16
Auburn17
CALLED
SharpTake projected Auburn at 65%. Auburn won.
ProjectedAuburn by 8.0
ActualAuburn by 1
Difference7.0 pts
Market spreadAuburn -6.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Auburn -6.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Baylor 35%Auburn 65%
SharpTake projects Auburn to win.
AuburnProjected winner
65%Win probability
Auburn by 8.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Auburn
Auburn's down-to-down efficiency is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Auburn. Auburn also has the edge in running-game efficiency, while Baylor's big-play ability pushes the other way.
Big-play ability
Baylor offset
Running-game efficiency
Auburn advantage
Home-field advantage
Baylor offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Baylor run game
EDGEBaylor offenseAuburn defense
Baylor gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Auburn allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Auburn.
Rushing Success Rate · 46.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 32.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Auburn explosive plays
EDGEAuburn offenseBaylor defense
Auburn creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Baylor allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Baylor.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.152Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.165Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Auburn finishing drives
EDGEAuburn offenseBaylor defense
Auburn scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle, while Baylor allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Auburn.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.90 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.30 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Baylor team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Auburn team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
- Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.