Overall team quality
Auburn advantage
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Auburn
Auburn's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Auburn. Auburn also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Southern Miss's current season's scoring performance pushes the other way.
Current season's scoring performance
Southern Miss offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Auburn advantage
Recent scoring performance
Southern Miss offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Southern Miss run game
CLEAR EDGESouthern Miss offenseAuburn defense
Southern Miss gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Auburn allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Auburn.
Rushing Success Rate · 40.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 32.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Southern Miss staying on schedule
EDGESouthern Miss offenseAuburn defense
Southern Miss gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Auburn allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Auburn.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 37.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explosive plays
NO EDGESouthern Miss offenseAuburn defense
Southern Miss creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while Auburn allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.333Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.289Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Southern Miss team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Auburn team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.