Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Texas A&M advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 2
Arizona StateatTexas A&M
Arizona State20
Texas A&M48
CALLED
SharpTake projected Texas A&M at 72%. Texas A&M won.
ProjectedTexas A&M by 9.5
ActualTexas A&M by 28
Difference18.5 pts
Market spreadTexas A&M -15
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Arizona State +15
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Arizona State 28%Texas A&M 72%
SharpTake projects Texas A&M to win.
Texas A&MProjected winner
72%Win probability
Texas A&M by 9.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Texas A&M
Texas A&M's down-to-down efficiency is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Texas A&M. Texas A&M also has the edge in overall quality, while Arizona State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Overall team quality
Texas A&M advantage
Last season's results
Arizona State offset
Big-play ability
Arizona State offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Arizona State pass game
CLEAR EDGEArizona State offenseTexas A&M defense
Arizona State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Texas A&M allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas A&M.
Passing Success Rate · 38.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 32.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Texas A&M disruption vs Arizona State
CLEAR EDGEArizona State disruption allowedTexas A&M disruption created
Arizona State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Texas A&M creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas A&M.
Havoc Rate allowed · 16.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 21.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Arizona State staying on schedule
EDGEArizona State offenseTexas A&M defense
Arizona State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Texas A&M allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas A&M.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 33.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Arizona State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Texas A&M team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.