FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 2

DelawareatVanderbilt

Sat, Sep. 12 · 4:15 PM ET · FirstBank Stadium

Delaware26
Vanderbilt35
CALLED

SharpTake projected Vanderbilt at 83%. Vanderbilt won.

ProjectedVanderbilt by 16.0
ActualVanderbilt by 9
Difference7.0 pts
Market spreadVanderbilt -21
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Delaware +21

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Vanderbilt to win.

VanderbiltProjected winner
83%Win probability
Vanderbilt by 16.0Projected margin

Why SharpTake leans

Why SharpTake leans Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Delaware's record from last season pushes the other way.

Overall team quality

Strong Vanderbilt advantage

Down-to-down efficiency

Vanderbilt advantage

Last season's results

Delaware offset

Current season's scoring performance

Delaware offset

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Vanderbilt explosive plays

CLEAR EDGE
Vanderbilt offenseDelaware defense

Vanderbilt creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Delaware allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Vanderbilt.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.415Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.423Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Vanderbilt pass game

CLEAR EDGE
Vanderbilt offenseDelaware defense

Vanderbilt gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Delaware allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Vanderbilt.

Passing Success Rate · 53.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 44.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Vanderbilt finishing drives

CLEAR EDGE
Vanderbilt offenseDelaware defense

Vanderbilt scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while Delaware allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Vanderbilt.

Points per scoring opportunity · 5.00 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.04 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Position rooms

Delaware position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Vanderbilt position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Sep. 12, 2026 · 4:15 PM ET

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