Overall team quality
Strong Missouri advantage
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Missouri
Missouri's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Missouri. Missouri also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Missouri advantage
Running-game efficiency
Missouri advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Missouri advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Missouri disruption vs Troy
CLEAR EDGETroy disruption allowedMissouri disruption created
Troy avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Missouri creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Missouri.
Havoc Rate allowed · 19.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Troy staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGETroy offenseMissouri defense
Troy gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Missouri allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Missouri.
Offensive Success Rate · 37.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 34.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Troy run game
CLEAR EDGETroy offenseMissouri defense
Troy gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Missouri allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Missouri.
Rushing Success Rate · 38.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 36.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Troy team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Missouri team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.