Overall team quality
Oklahoma advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 3
New MexicoatOklahoma
New Mexico6
Oklahoma14
CALLED
SharpTake projected Oklahoma at 72%. Oklahoma won.
ProjectedOklahoma by 10.0
ActualOklahoma by 8
Difference2.0 pts
Market spreadOklahoma -21.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: New Mexico +21.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
New Mexico 28%Oklahoma 72%
SharpTake projects Oklahoma to win.
OklahomaProjected winner
72%Win probability
Oklahoma by 10.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Oklahoma
Oklahoma's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Oklahoma. Oklahoma also has the edge in current season's results and down-to-down efficiency, while New Mexico's current season's scoring performance pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Oklahoma advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Oklahoma advantage
Current season's scoring performance
New Mexico offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
New Mexico staying on schedule
EDGENew Mexico offenseOklahoma defense
New Mexico gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Oklahoma allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oklahoma.
Offensive Success Rate · 41.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 30.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Oklahoma run game
EDGEOklahoma offenseNew Mexico defense
Oklahoma gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while New Mexico allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors New Mexico.
Rushing Success Rate · 39.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
New Mexico pass game
EDGENew Mexico offenseOklahoma defense
New Mexico gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Oklahoma allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oklahoma.
Passing Success Rate · 40.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 33.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
New Mexico team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Oklahoma team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.