Overall team quality
Strong Alabama advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
South CarolinaatAlabama
South Carolina18
Alabama49
CALLED
SharpTake projected Alabama at 76%. Alabama won.
ProjectedAlabama by 11.5
ActualAlabama by 31
Difference19.5 pts
Market spreadAlabama -12.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: South Carolina +12.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
South Carolina 24%Alabama 76%
SharpTake projects Alabama to win.
AlabamaProjected winner
76%Win probability
Alabama by 11.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Alabama
Alabama's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Alabama. Alabama also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while South Carolina's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
South Carolina offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Alabama advantage
Current season's results
South Carolina offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Alabama disruption vs South Carolina
CLEAR EDGESouth Carolina disruption allowedAlabama disruption created
South Carolina avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Alabama creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Alabama.
Havoc Rate allowed · 19.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
South Carolina staying on schedule
EDGESouth Carolina offenseAlabama defense
South Carolina gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Alabama allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Alabama.
Offensive Success Rate · 38.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 37.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
South Carolina pass game
EDGESouth Carolina offenseAlabama defense
South Carolina gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Alabama allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Alabama.
Passing Success Rate · 36.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 37.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
South Carolina team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Alabama team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.