Current season's results
Arkansas advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
TulsaatArkansas
Tulsa6
Arkansas34
CALLED
SharpTake projected Arkansas at 63%. Arkansas won.
ProjectedArkansas by 6.5
ActualArkansas by 28
Difference21.5 pts
Market spreadArkansas -7
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Tulsa +7
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Tulsa 37%Arkansas 63%
SharpTake projects Arkansas to win.
ArkansasProjected winner
63%Win probability
Arkansas by 6.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Arkansas
Arkansas's current season's results is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Arkansas. Arkansas also has the edge in overall quality, while Tulsa's current season's scoring performance pushes the other way.
Current season's scoring performance
Tulsa offset
Recent scoring performance
Tulsa offset
Overall team quality
Arkansas advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Tulsa staying on schedule
EDGETulsa offenseArkansas defense
Tulsa gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Arkansas allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tulsa.
Offensive Success Rate · 41.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 46.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Tulsa run game
EDGETulsa offenseArkansas defense
Tulsa gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Arkansas allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tulsa.
Rushing Success Rate · 43.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 48.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Arkansas pass game
EDGEArkansas offenseTulsa defense
Arkansas gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Tulsa allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arkansas.
Passing Success Rate · 45.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 44.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Tulsa team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Arkansas team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.