Overall team quality
Strong Ole Miss advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Ole MissatFlorida
Ole Miss28
Florida52
MISSED
SharpTake projected Ole Miss at 52%. Florida won.
ProjectedOle Miss by 1.0
ActualFlorida by 24
Difference25.0 pts
Market spreadFlorida -4
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Ole Miss +4
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Ole Miss 52%Florida 48%
SharpTake projects Ole Miss to win.
Ole MissProjected winner
52%Win probability
Ole Miss by 1.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Ole Miss
Ole Miss's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Ole Miss. Ole Miss also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Florida's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Florida offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Ole Miss advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Florida offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Ole Miss pass game
CLEAR EDGEOle Miss offenseFlorida defense
Ole Miss gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Florida allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Ole Miss.
Passing Success Rate · 50.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Ole Miss staying on schedule
EDGEOle Miss offenseFlorida defense
Ole Miss gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Florida allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Ole Miss.
Offensive Success Rate · 48.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Florida explosive plays
EDGEFlorida offenseOle Miss defense
Florida creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Ole Miss allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Ole Miss.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.095Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.290Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Ole Miss team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Florida team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.