Overall team quality
Missouri offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
MissouriatMississippi State
Missouri24
Mississippi State31
CALLED
SharpTake projected Mississippi State at 55%. Mississippi State won.
ProjectedMississippi State by 2.0
ActualMississippi State by 7
Difference5.0 pts
Market spreadMississippi State -4.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Missouri +4.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Missouri 45%Mississippi State 55%
SharpTake projects Mississippi State to win.
Mississippi StateProjected winner
55%Win probability
Mississippi State by 2.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Mississippi State
Mississippi State's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Mississippi State. Mississippi State also has the edge in big-play ability, while Missouri's overall quality pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Mississippi State advantage
Big-play ability
Slight Mississippi State advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Missouri offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Missouri disruption vs Mississippi State
CLEAR EDGEMississippi State disruption allowedMissouri disruption created
Mississippi State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Missouri creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Missouri.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Mississippi State staying on schedule
EDGEMississippi State offenseMissouri defense
Mississippi State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Missouri allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Missouri.
Offensive Success Rate · 42.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 34.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Missouri run game
EDGEMissouri offenseMississippi State defense
Missouri gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Mississippi State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Missouri.
Rushing Success Rate · 48.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Missouri team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Mississippi State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.