Overall team quality
Texas offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
TexasatTennessee
Texas20
Tennessee17
MISSED
SharpTake projected Tennessee at 54%. Texas won.
ProjectedTennessee by 1.0
ActualTexas by 3
Difference4.0 pts
Market spreadTexas -5.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Tennessee +5.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Texas 46%Tennessee 54%
SharpTake projects Tennessee to win.
TennesseeProjected winner
54%Win probability
Tennessee by 1.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Tennessee
Tennessee's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Tennessee. Tennessee also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Texas's overall quality pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Tennessee advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight Tennessee advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Slight Tennessee advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Tennessee staying on schedule
EDGETennessee offenseTexas defense
Tennessee gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Texas allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Tennessee.
Offensive Success Rate · 50.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 39.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Texas run game
EDGETexas offenseTennessee defense
Texas gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Tennessee allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas.
Rushing Success Rate · 41.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Tennessee pass game
EDGETennessee offenseTexas defense
Tennessee gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Texas allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Tennessee.
Passing Success Rate · 50.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 39.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Texas team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Tennessee team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.