Overall team quality
Strong Georgia advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
VanderbiltatGeorgia
Vanderbilt14
Georgia38
CALLED
SharpTake projected Georgia at 89%. Georgia won.
ProjectedGeorgia by 20.5
ActualGeorgia by 24
Difference3.5 pts
Market spreadGeorgia -26
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Vanderbilt +26
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Vanderbilt 11%Georgia 89%
SharpTake projects Georgia to win.
GeorgiaProjected winner
89%Win probability
Georgia by 20.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Georgia
Georgia's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Georgia. Georgia also has the edge in current season's scoring performance and down-to-down efficiency, while Vanderbilt's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's scoring performance
Georgia advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Georgia advantage
Current season's results
Vanderbilt offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Vanderbilt staying on schedule
EDGEVanderbilt offenseGeorgia defense
Vanderbilt gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Georgia allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Vanderbilt.
Offensive Success Rate · 50.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Vanderbilt pass game
EDGEVanderbilt offenseGeorgia defense
Vanderbilt gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Georgia allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Vanderbilt.
Passing Success Rate · 53.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 40.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Georgia explosive plays
EDGEGeorgia offenseVanderbilt defense
Georgia creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Vanderbilt allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Vanderbilt.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.141Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.285Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Vanderbilt team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Georgia team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.