Overall team quality
Strong Alabama advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
AlabamaatMississippi State
Alabama56
Mississippi State23
CALLED
SharpTake projected Alabama at 63%. Alabama won.
ProjectedAlabama by 5.5
ActualAlabama by 33
Difference27.5 pts
Market spreadAlabama -5.5
Vs spreadNO EDGESharpTake Pick: No edge
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Alabama 63%Mississippi State 37%
SharpTake projects Alabama to win.
AlabamaProjected winner
63%Win probability
Alabama by 5.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Alabama
Alabama's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Alabama. Alabama also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and recent scoring performance, while Mississippi State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Mississippi State offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Alabama advantage
Recent scoring performance
Slight Alabama advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Alabama disruption vs Mississippi State
EDGEMississippi State disruption allowedAlabama disruption created
Mississippi State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Alabama creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Alabama.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEMississippi State offenseAlabama defense
Mississippi State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Alabama allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 42.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 37.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGEMississippi State offenseAlabama defense
Mississippi State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Alabama allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 44.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 37.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Alabama team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Mississippi State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.