Last season's results
Florida advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
FloridaatMissouri
Florida17
Missouri45
MISSED
SharpTake projected Florida at 53%. Missouri won.
ProjectedFlorida by 1.0
ActualMissouri by 28
Difference29.0 pts
Market spreadFlorida -5.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Missouri +5.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Florida 53%Missouri 47%
SharpTake projects Florida to win.
FloridaProjected winner
53%Win probability
Florida by 1.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Florida
Florida's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Florida. Florida also has the edge in overall quality and current season's scoring performance, while Missouri's current season's results pushes the other way.
Overall team quality
Florida advantage
Current season's results
Missouri offset
Current season's scoring performance
Slight Florida advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Florida pass game
CLEAR EDGEFlorida offenseMissouri defense
Florida gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Missouri allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Missouri.
Passing Success Rate · 38.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 34.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Florida staying on schedule
EDGEFlorida offenseMissouri defense
Florida gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Missouri allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Missouri.
Offensive Success Rate · 42.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 34.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Florida explosive plays
EDGEFlorida offenseMissouri defense
Florida creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Missouri allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Missouri.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.095Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.217Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Florida team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Missouri team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.