Overall team quality
Kentucky offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
KentuckyatSouth Carolina
Kentucky35
South Carolina34
MISSED
SharpTake projected South Carolina at 57%. Kentucky won.
ProjectedSouth Carolina by 3.0
ActualKentucky by 1
Difference4.0 pts
Market spreadSouth Carolina -2.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: South Carolina -2.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Kentucky 43%South Carolina 57%
SharpTake projects South Carolina to win.
South CarolinaProjected winner
57%Win probability
South Carolina by 3.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans South Carolina
South Carolina's current season's results is the biggest reason SharpTake favors South Carolina. South Carolina also has the edge in record from last season, while Kentucky's overall quality pushes the other way.
Current season's results
South Carolina advantage
Last season's results
Slight South Carolina advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Kentucky offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Kentucky explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEKentucky offenseSouth Carolina defense
Kentucky creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while South Carolina allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Carolina.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.139Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.173Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Kentucky disruption vs South Carolina
EDGESouth Carolina disruption allowedKentucky disruption created
South Carolina avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Kentucky creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Kentucky.
Havoc Rate allowed · 19.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 14.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
South Carolina finishing drives
EDGESouth Carolina offenseKentucky defense
South Carolina scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Kentucky allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Kentucky.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.61 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.98 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Kentucky team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
South Carolina team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.