Overall team quality
Strong Tennessee advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
AuburnatTennessee
Auburn14
Tennessee24
CALLED
SharpTake projected Tennessee at 72%. Tennessee won.
ProjectedTennessee by 9.5
ActualTennessee by 10
Difference0.5 pts
Market spreadTennessee -6.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Tennessee -6.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Auburn 28%Tennessee 72%
SharpTake projects Tennessee to win.
TennesseeProjected winner
72%Win probability
Tennessee by 9.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Tennessee
Tennessee's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Tennessee. Tennessee also has the edge in current season's scoring performance and big-play ability, while Auburn's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Auburn offset
Current season's scoring performance
Slight Tennessee advantage
Big-play ability
Slight Tennessee advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Auburn run game
CLEAR EDGEAuburn offenseTennessee defense
Auburn gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Tennessee allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Auburn.
Rushing Success Rate · 47.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Auburn explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEAuburn offenseTennessee defense
Auburn creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Tennessee allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tennessee.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.152Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.143Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Tennessee pass game
EDGETennessee offenseAuburn defense
Tennessee gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Auburn allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Tennessee.
Passing Success Rate · 50.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Auburn team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Tennessee team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.