Overall team quality
Strong Texas A&M advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
ArkansasatTexas A&M
Arkansas7
Texas A&M34
CALLED
SharpTake projected Texas A&M at 72%. Texas A&M won.
ProjectedTexas A&M by 9.0
ActualTexas A&M by 27
Difference18.0 pts
Market spreadTexas A&M -13.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Arkansas +13.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Arkansas 28%Texas A&M 72%
SharpTake projects Texas A&M to win.
Texas A&MProjected winner
72%Win probability
Texas A&M by 9.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Texas A&M
Texas A&M's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Texas A&M. Texas A&M also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while Arkansas's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Arkansas offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Texas A&M advantage
Running-game efficiency
Texas A&M advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Texas A&M staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGETexas A&M offenseArkansas defense
Texas A&M gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Arkansas allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas A&M.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 46.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Arkansas explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEArkansas offenseTexas A&M defense
Arkansas creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while Texas A&M allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arkansas.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.313Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.429Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Texas A&M disruption vs Arkansas
CLEAR EDGEArkansas disruption allowedTexas A&M disruption created
Arkansas avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Texas A&M creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas A&M.
Havoc Rate allowed · 16.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 21.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Arkansas team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Texas A&M team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.