Overall team quality
Georgia offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
GeorgiaatAlabama
Georgia20
Alabama17
MISSED
SharpTake projected Alabama at 52%. Georgia won.
ProjectedAlabama by 0.5
ActualGeorgia by 3
Difference3.5 pts
Market spreadAlabama -2.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Georgia +2.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Georgia 48%Alabama 52%
SharpTake projects Alabama to win.
AlabamaProjected winner
52%Win probability
Alabama by 0.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Alabama
Alabama's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Alabama. Georgia's overall quality pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Slight Alabama advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Georgia offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Georgia explosive plays
EDGEGeorgia offenseAlabama defense
Georgia creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Alabama allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Alabama.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.141Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.230Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Georgia finishing drives
EDGEGeorgia offenseAlabama defense
Georgia scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while Alabama allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Georgia.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.79 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.65 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Run game
NO EDGEGeorgia offenseAlabama defense
Georgia gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Alabama allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 46.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 37.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Georgia team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Alabama team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.