Overall team quality
Strong Tennessee advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
TennesseeatArkansas
Tennessee24
Arkansas17
CALLED
SharpTake projected Tennessee at 72%. Tennessee won.
ProjectedTennessee by 9.5
ActualTennessee by 7
Difference2.5 pts
Market spreadTennessee -13.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Arkansas +13.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Tennessee 72%Arkansas 28%
SharpTake projects Tennessee to win.
TennesseeProjected winner
72%Win probability
Tennessee by 9.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Tennessee
Tennessee's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Tennessee. Tennessee also has the edge in current season's scoring performance, while Arkansas's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Arkansas offset
Current season's results
Arkansas offset
Current season's scoring performance
Tennessee advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Tennessee staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGETennessee offenseArkansas defense
Tennessee gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Arkansas allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tennessee.
Offensive Success Rate · 50.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 46.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Tennessee run game
CLEAR EDGETennessee offenseArkansas defense
Tennessee gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Arkansas allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tennessee.
Rushing Success Rate · 51.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 48.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Tennessee pass game
CLEAR EDGETennessee offenseArkansas defense
Tennessee gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Arkansas allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tennessee.
Passing Success Rate · 50.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 44.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Tennessee team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Arkansas team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.