Overall team quality
Florida advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
South CarolinaatFlorida
South Carolina38
Florida19
MISSED
SharpTake projected Florida at 72%. South Carolina won.
ProjectedFlorida by 8.5
ActualSouth Carolina by 19
Difference27.5 pts
Market spreadFlorida -10.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: South Carolina +10.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
South Carolina 28%Florida 72%
SharpTake projects Florida to win.
FloridaProjected winner
72%Win probability
Florida by 8.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Florida
Florida's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Florida. Florida also has the edge in recent scoring performance and down-to-down efficiency, while South Carolina's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
South Carolina offset
Recent scoring performance
Slight Florida advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight Florida advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Florida explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEFlorida offenseSouth Carolina defense
Florida creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while South Carolina allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Carolina.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.095Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.173Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Florida disruption vs South Carolina
EDGESouth Carolina disruption allowedFlorida disruption created
South Carolina avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Florida creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Florida.
Havoc Rate allowed · 19.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 14.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
South Carolina finishing drives
EDGESouth Carolina offenseFlorida defense
South Carolina scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Florida allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Florida.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.61 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.46 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
South Carolina team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Florida team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.