Overall team quality
Strong Texas advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
TexasvsOklahoma
Texas24
Oklahoma27
MISSED
SharpTake projected Texas at 69%. Oklahoma won.
ProjectedTexas by 6.0
ActualOklahoma by 3
Difference9.0 pts
Market spreadTexas -7.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Oklahoma +7.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Texas 69%Oklahoma 31%
SharpTake projects Texas to win.
TexasProjected winner
69%Win probability
Texas by 6.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Texas
Texas's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Texas. Texas also has the edge in big-play ability and recent scoring performance, while Oklahoma's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Oklahoma offset
Big-play ability
Texas advantage
Recent scoring performance
Slight Texas advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Texas explosive plays
CLEAR EDGETexas offenseOklahoma defense
Texas creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Oklahoma allows big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.365Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.335Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Texas staying on schedule
EDGETexas offenseOklahoma defense
Texas gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Oklahoma allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oklahoma.
Offensive Success Rate · 40.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 30.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Texas run game
EDGETexas offenseOklahoma defense
Texas gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Oklahoma allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oklahoma.
Rushing Success Rate · 41.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 28.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Texas team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Oklahoma team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.