Overall team quality
Strong Ole Miss advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Ole MissatVanderbilt
Ole Miss52
Vanderbilt17
CALLED
SharpTake projected Ole Miss at 57%. Ole Miss won.
ProjectedOle Miss by 3.0
ActualOle Miss by 35
Difference32.0 pts
Market spreadOle Miss -8.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Vanderbilt +8.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Ole Miss 57%Vanderbilt 43%
SharpTake projects Ole Miss to win.
Ole MissProjected winner
57%Win probability
Ole Miss by 3.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Ole Miss
Ole Miss's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Ole Miss. Ole Miss also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Vanderbilt's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Ole Miss advantage
Last season's results
Vanderbilt offset
Current season's results
Vanderbilt offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Vanderbilt staying on schedule
EDGEVanderbilt offenseOle Miss defense
Vanderbilt gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Ole Miss allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Vanderbilt.
Offensive Success Rate · 50.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Ole Miss pass game
EDGEOle Miss offenseVanderbilt defense
Ole Miss gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Vanderbilt allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Ole Miss.
Passing Success Rate · 50.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Vanderbilt explosive plays
EDGEVanderbilt offenseOle Miss defense
Vanderbilt creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Ole Miss allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Vanderbilt.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.413Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.290Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Ole Miss team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Vanderbilt team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.