Control basic Google Analytics for this browser. Analytics is on by default for eligible U.S. visits; elsewhere, it needs your permission. Sports questions are not sent to Google Analytics. Privacy policy
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Auburn 10%Georgia 90%
SharpTake projects Georgia to win.
GeorgiaProjected winner
90%Win probability
Georgia by 20.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Georgia run game
EDGE
Georgia offenseAuburn defense
Georgia gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Auburn allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Auburn.
Rushing Success Rate · 46.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 32.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Georgia gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Auburn allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Georgia.
Passing Success Rate · 47.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Georgia creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Auburn allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Auburn.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.141Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.276Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Auburn position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Georgia position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET