SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 7

Mississippi StateatLSU

Sat, Oct. 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Tiger Stadium (LA)

Mississippi State0
LSU31
CALLED

SharpTake projected LSU at 78%. LSU won.

ProjectedLSU by 12.0
ActualLSU by 31
Difference19.0 pts
Market spreadLSU -18.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Mississippi State +18.25

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects LSU to win.

LSUProjected winner
78%Win probability
LSU by 12.0Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Staying on schedule

NO EDGE
Mississippi State offenseLSU defense

Mississippi State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while LSU allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.

Offensive Success Rate · 42.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Explosive plays

NO EDGE
LSU offenseMississippi State defense

LSU creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Mississippi State allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.194Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.242Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Disruption

NO EDGE
Mississippi State disruption allowedLSU disruption created

Mississippi State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while LSU creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.

Havoc Rate allowed · 18.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Mississippi State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. LSU team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Mississippi State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
LSU position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET

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