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Sat, Oct. 17 · 3:30 PM ET · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Missouri3
Ole Miss31
CALLED
SharpTake projected Ole Miss at 60%. Ole Miss won.
ProjectedOle Miss by 4.0
ActualOle Miss by 28
Difference24.0 pts
Market spreadOle Miss -4.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Missouri +4.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Missouri 40%Ole Miss 60%
SharpTake projects Ole Miss to win.
Ole MissProjected winner
60%Win probability
Ole Miss by 4.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Ole Miss run game
EDGE
Ole Miss offenseMissouri defense
Ole Miss gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Missouri allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Missouri.
Rushing Success Rate · 46.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 36.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Missouri gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Ole Miss allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Pass game
NO EDGE
Missouri offenseOle Miss defense
Missouri gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Ole Miss allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 42.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 36.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Missouri position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Ole Miss position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET