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SharpTake projected Alabama at 71%. Tennessee won.
ProjectedAlabama by 8.5
ActualTennessee by 16
Difference24.5 pts
Market spreadAlabama -7.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Alabama -7.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Alabama 71%Tennessee 29%
SharpTake projects Alabama to win.
AlabamaProjected winner
71%Win probability
Alabama by 8.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Alabama run game
EDGE
Alabama offenseTennessee defense
Alabama gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Tennessee allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Alabama.
Rushing Success Rate · 40.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Alabama creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Tennessee allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tennessee.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.266Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.143Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Tennessee finishing drives
EDGE
Tennessee offenseAlabama defense
Tennessee scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while Alabama allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Tennessee.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.69 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.65 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Alabama position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Tennessee position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET