Control basic Google Analytics for this browser. Analytics is on by default for eligible U.S. visits; elsewhere, it needs your permission. Sports questions are not sent to Google Analytics. Privacy policy
Sat, Oct. 17 · 12:00 PM ET · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Florida27
Texas24
MISSED
SharpTake projected Texas at 81%. Florida won.
ProjectedTexas by 13.5
ActualFlorida by 3
Difference16.5 pts
Market spreadTexas -12
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Texas -12
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Florida 19%Texas 81%
SharpTake projects Texas to win.
TexasProjected winner
81%Win probability
Texas by 13.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Florida explosive plays
CLEAR EDGE
Florida offenseTexas defense
Florida creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Texas allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.095Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.141Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Run game
NO EDGE
Florida offenseTexas defense
Florida gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Texas allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 48.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 39.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Texas gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Florida allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 40.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Florida position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Texas position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET