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SharpTake projected Vanderbilt at 64%. Arkansas won.
ProjectedVanderbilt by 5.5
ActualArkansas by 10
Difference15.5 pts
Market spreadVanderbilt -5.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Arkansas +5.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Arkansas 36%Vanderbilt 64%
SharpTake projects Vanderbilt to win.
VanderbiltProjected winner
64%Win probability
Vanderbilt by 5.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Vanderbilt staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGE
Vanderbilt offenseArkansas defense
Vanderbilt gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Arkansas allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Vanderbilt.
Offensive Success Rate · 50.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 46.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Vanderbilt run game
CLEAR EDGE
Vanderbilt offenseArkansas defense
Vanderbilt gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Arkansas allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Vanderbilt.
Rushing Success Rate · 47.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 48.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Vanderbilt gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Arkansas allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Vanderbilt.
Passing Success Rate · 53.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 44.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Arkansas position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Vanderbilt position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET