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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
LSU 67%Auburn 33%
SharpTake projects LSU to win.
LSUProjected winner
67%Win probability
LSU by 6.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
LSU run game
CLEAR EDGE
LSU offenseAuburn defense
LSU gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Auburn allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Auburn.
Rushing Success Rate · 38.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 32.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
LSU gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Auburn allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 37.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explosive plays
NO EDGE
LSU offenseAuburn defense
LSU creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Auburn allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.194Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.276Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
LSU position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Auburn position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET