SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 8

VanderbiltatKentucky

Sat, Oct. 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Kroger Field

Vanderbilt17
Kentucky34
CALLED

SharpTake projected Kentucky at 80%. Kentucky won.

ProjectedKentucky by 13.0
ActualKentucky by 17
Difference4.0 pts
Market spreadKentucky -10.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Kentucky -10.25

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Kentucky to win.

KentuckyProjected winner
80%Win probability
Kentucky by 13.0Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Vanderbilt pass game

CLEAR EDGE
Vanderbilt offenseKentucky defense

Vanderbilt gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Kentucky allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Vanderbilt.

Passing Success Rate · 53.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 44.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Vanderbilt staying on schedule

EDGE
Vanderbilt offenseKentucky defense

Vanderbilt gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Kentucky allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Vanderbilt.

Offensive Success Rate · 50.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Vanderbilt explosive plays

EDGE
Vanderbilt offenseKentucky defense

Vanderbilt creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Kentucky allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Vanderbilt.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.413Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.214Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Vanderbilt team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Kentucky team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Vanderbilt position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Kentucky position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET

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