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SharpTake projected Mississippi State at 53%. Oklahoma won.
ProjectedMississippi State by 1.0
ActualOklahoma by 8
Difference9.0 pts
Market spreadOklahoma -1.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Mississippi State +1.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Oklahoma 47%Mississippi State 53%
SharpTake projects Mississippi State to win.
Mississippi StateProjected winner
53%Win probability
Mississippi State by 1.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Oklahoma disruption vs Mississippi State
CLEAR EDGE
Mississippi State disruption allowedOklahoma disruption created
Mississippi State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Oklahoma creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oklahoma.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 22.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Mississippi State staying on schedule
EDGE
Mississippi State offenseOklahoma defense
Mississippi State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Oklahoma allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oklahoma.
Offensive Success Rate · 42.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 30.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Mississippi State run game
EDGE
Mississippi State offenseOklahoma defense
Mississippi State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Oklahoma allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oklahoma.
Rushing Success Rate · 44.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 28.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Oklahoma position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Mississippi State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET