Control basic Google Analytics for this browser. Analytics is on by default for eligible U.S. visits; elsewhere, it needs your permission. Sports questions are not sent to Google Analytics. Privacy policy
Sat, Oct. 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Williams-Brice Stadium
Tennessee24
South Carolina27
MISSED
SharpTake projected Tennessee at 61%. South Carolina won.
ProjectedTennessee by 4.5
ActualSouth Carolina by 3
Difference7.5 pts
Market spreadSouth Carolina -2.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Tennessee +2.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Tennessee 61%South Carolina 39%
SharpTake projects Tennessee to win.
TennesseeProjected winner
61%Win probability
Tennessee by 4.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Tennessee pass game
CLEAR EDGE
Tennessee offenseSouth Carolina defense
Tennessee gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while South Carolina allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tennessee.
Passing Success Rate · 50.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 44.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
South Carolina disruption allowedTennessee disruption created
South Carolina avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Tennessee creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tennessee.
Havoc Rate allowed · 19.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 18.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Tennessee staying on schedule
EDGE
Tennessee offenseSouth Carolina defense
Tennessee gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while South Carolina allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Tennessee.
Offensive Success Rate · 50.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 41.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Tennessee position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.South Carolina position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET