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Sat, Oct. 24 · 7:30 PM ET · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Ole Miss27
Texas34
CALLED
SharpTake projected Texas at 59%. Texas won.
ProjectedTexas by 3.0
ActualTexas by 7
Difference4.0 pts
Market spreadTexas -3
Vs spreadNO EDGESharpTake Pick: No edge
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Ole Miss 41%Texas 59%
SharpTake projects Texas to win.
TexasProjected winner
59%Win probability
Texas by 3.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Ole Miss staying on schedule
EDGE
Ole Miss offenseTexas defense
Ole Miss gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Texas allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Ole Miss.
Offensive Success Rate · 48.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 39.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Ole Miss pass game
EDGE
Ole Miss offenseTexas defense
Ole Miss gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Texas allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Ole Miss.
Passing Success Rate · 50.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 39.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Texas creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Ole Miss allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Texas.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.365Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.290Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Ole Miss position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Texas position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET