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Sat, Oct. 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · NEUTRAL SITE
Florida 22%Georgia 78%
SharpTake projects Georgia to win.
GeorgiaProjected winner
78%Win probability
Georgia by 12.0Projected margin
SharpTakeGeorgia by 12.0
Market SpreadGeorgia -11.75
SharpTake is 0.25 points higher on Georgia.
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Georgia pass game
CLEAR EDGE
Georgia offenseFlorida defense
Georgia gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Florida allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Georgia.
Passing Success Rate · 47.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Florida creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Georgia allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Georgia.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.095Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.150Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Georgia finishing drives
EDGE
Georgia offenseFlorida defense
Georgia scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while Florida allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Georgia.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.79 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.46 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Florida position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Georgia position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET