Control basic Google Analytics for this browser. Analytics is on by default for eligible U.S. visits; elsewhere, it needs your permission. Sports questions are not sent to Google Analytics. Privacy policy
Sat, Oct. 31 · 12:45 PM ET · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Auburn 20%Ole Miss 80%
SharpTake projects Ole Miss to win.
Ole MissProjected winner
80%Win probability
Ole Miss by 12.5Projected margin
SharpTakeOle Miss by 12.5
Market SpreadOle Miss -13.25
Market is 0.75 points higher on Ole Miss.
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Ole Miss run game
EDGE
Ole Miss offenseAuburn defense
Ole Miss gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Auburn allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Auburn.
Rushing Success Rate · 46.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 32.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Ole Miss gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Auburn allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Ole Miss.
Passing Success Rate · 50.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Ole Miss gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Auburn allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 48.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 37.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Auburn position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Ole Miss position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET