SharpTake

Game forecast · REGULAR week 9

South CarolinaatOklahoma

Sat, Oct. 31 · 4:15 PM ET · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)

SharpTake projects Oklahoma to win.

OklahomaProjected winner
62%Win probability
Oklahoma by 4.5Projected margin
SharpTakeOklahoma by 4.5
Market SpreadOklahoma -4.75

Market is 0.25 points higher on Oklahoma.

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Oklahoma disruption vs South Carolina

CLEAR EDGE
South Carolina disruption allowedOklahoma disruption created

South Carolina avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Oklahoma creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oklahoma.

Havoc Rate allowed · 19.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 22.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created

South Carolina finishing drives

CLEAR EDGE
South Carolina offenseOklahoma defense

South Carolina scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Oklahoma allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oklahoma.

Points per scoring opportunity · 2.61 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.62 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

South Carolina staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
South Carolina offenseOklahoma defense

South Carolina gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Oklahoma allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oklahoma.

Offensive Success Rate · 38.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 30.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

South Carolina team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Oklahoma team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

South Carolina position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Oklahoma position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET

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