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Sat, Oct. 31 · 7:30 PM ET · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Mississippi State 16%Texas 84%
SharpTake projects Texas to win.
TexasProjected winner
84%Win probability
Texas by 15.5Projected margin
SharpTakeTexas by 15.5
Market SpreadTexas -20.5
Market is 5.0 points higher on Texas.
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Texas explosive plays
EDGE
Texas offenseMississippi State defense
Texas creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Mississippi State allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Texas.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.365Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.242Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Texas disruption vs Mississippi State
EDGE
Mississippi State disruption allowedTexas disruption created
Mississippi State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Texas creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Run game
NO EDGE
Texas offenseMississippi State defense
Texas gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Mississippi State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 41.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Mississippi State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Texas position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET