Down-to-down efficiency
Tulsa advantage
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Tulsa
Tulsa's down-to-down efficiency is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Tulsa. Tulsa also has the edge in running-game efficiency and big-play ability, while Oklahoma State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Oklahoma State offset
Running-game efficiency
Slight Tulsa advantage
Big-play ability
Slight Tulsa advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Oklahoma State staying on schedule
EDGEOklahoma State offenseTulsa defense
Oklahoma State gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Tulsa allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Tulsa.
Offensive Success Rate · 34.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Oklahoma State run game
EDGEOklahoma State offenseTulsa defense
Oklahoma State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Tulsa allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Tulsa.
Rushing Success Rate · 34.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 42.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Oklahoma State pass game
EDGEOklahoma State offenseTulsa defense
Oklahoma State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Tulsa allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Tulsa.
Passing Success Rate · 34.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Oklahoma State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Tulsa team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
- Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.