Current season's scoring performance
Kansas State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 3
TulaneatKansas State
Tulane20
Kansas State31
CALLED
SharpTake projected Kansas State at 84%. Kansas State won.
ProjectedKansas State by 15.5
ActualKansas State by 11
Difference4.5 pts
Market spreadKansas State -20.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Tulane +20.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Tulane 16%Kansas State 84%
SharpTake projects Kansas State to win.
Kansas StateProjected winner
84%Win probability
Kansas State by 15.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Kansas State
Kansas State's current season's scoring performance is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Kansas State. Kansas State also has the edge in recent scoring performance and record from last season, while Tulane's current season's results pushes the other way.
Recent scoring performance
Kansas State advantage
Current season's results
Tulane offset
Last season's results
Kansas State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Kansas State pass game
EDGEKansas State offenseTulane defense
Kansas State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Tulane allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Kansas State.
Passing Success Rate · 40.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 46.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEKansas State offenseTulane defense
Kansas State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Tulane allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 40.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGEKansas State offenseTulane defense
Kansas State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Tulane allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 40.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 43.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Tulane team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Kansas State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.