Overall team quality
Strong BYU advantage
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans BYU
BYU's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors BYU. BYU also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while Colorado State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Colorado State offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong BYU advantage
Running-game efficiency
BYU advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Colorado State staying on schedule
EDGEColorado State offenseBYU defense
Colorado State gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while BYU allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors BYU.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
BYU run game
EDGEBYU offenseColorado State defense
BYU gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Colorado State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors BYU.
Rushing Success Rate · 47.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
BYU disruption vs Colorado State
EDGEColorado State disruption allowedBYU disruption created
Colorado State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while BYU creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors BYU.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 15.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
BYU team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Colorado State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.