Current season's results
UCF advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 3
Georgia StateatUCF
Georgia State30
UCF44
CALLED
SharpTake projected UCF at 67%. UCF won.
ProjectedUCF by 8.0
ActualUCF by 14
Difference6.0 pts
Market spreadUCF -17.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Georgia State +17.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Georgia State 33%UCF 67%
SharpTake projects UCF to win.
UCFProjected winner
67%Win probability
UCF by 8.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans UCF
UCF's current season's results is the biggest reason SharpTake favors UCF. UCF also has the edge in overall quality and big-play ability, while Georgia State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Georgia State offset
Overall team quality
UCF advantage
Big-play ability
Slight UCF advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
UCF staying on schedule
EDGEUCF offenseGeorgia State defense
UCF gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia State allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UCF.
Offensive Success Rate · 40.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 46.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
UCF run game
EDGEUCF offenseGeorgia State defense
UCF gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UCF.
Rushing Success Rate · 40.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
UCF pass game
EDGEUCF offenseGeorgia State defense
UCF gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UCF.
Passing Success Rate · 40.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 46.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Georgia State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
UCF team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.