Overall team quality
Strong Utah advantage
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Utah
Utah's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Utah. Utah also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Utah State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Utah State offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Utah advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Utah advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Utah staying on schedule
EDGEUtah offenseUtah State defense
Utah gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Utah State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Utah.
Offensive Success Rate · 49.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Utah run game
EDGEUtah offenseUtah State defense
Utah gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Utah State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Utah.
Rushing Success Rate · 52.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 44.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Utah State pass game
EDGEUtah State offenseUtah defense
Utah State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Utah allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Utah.
Passing Success Rate · 40.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 33.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Utah State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Utah team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.