Overall team quality
Strong Arizona advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
ArizonaatWashington State
Arizona34
Washington State24
CALLED
SharpTake projected Arizona at 61%. Arizona won.
ProjectedArizona by 4.0
ActualArizona by 10
Difference6.0 pts
Market spreadArizona -10.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Washington State +10.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Arizona 61%Washington State 39%
SharpTake projects Arizona to win.
ArizonaProjected winner
61%Win probability
Arizona by 4.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Arizona
Arizona's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Arizona. Arizona also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Washington State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Arizona advantage
Current season's results
Washington State offset
Last season's results
Washington State offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Washington State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEWashington State offenseArizona defense
Washington State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Arizona allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arizona.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.114Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.181Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Washington State pass game
EDGEWashington State offenseArizona defense
Washington State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Arizona allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arizona.
Passing Success Rate · 41.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 33.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Arizona disruption vs Washington State
EDGEWashington State disruption allowedArizona disruption created
Washington State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Arizona creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arizona.
Havoc Rate allowed · 15.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 20.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Arizona team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Washington State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.