Overall team quality
Strong Texas Tech advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Sam HoustonatTexas Tech
Sam Houston14
Texas Tech49
CALLED
SharpTake projected Texas Tech at 89%. Texas Tech won.
ProjectedTexas Tech by 19.5
ActualTexas Tech by 35
Difference15.5 pts
Market spreadTexas Tech -34.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Sam Houston +34.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Sam Houston 11%Texas Tech 89%
SharpTake projects Texas Tech to win.
Texas TechProjected winner
89%Win probability
Texas Tech by 19.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Texas Tech
Texas Tech's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Texas Tech. Texas Tech also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Sam Houston's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Sam Houston offset
Current season's results
Sam Houston offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Texas Tech advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Sam Houston staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGESam Houston offenseTexas Tech defense
Sam Houston gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Texas Tech allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas Tech.
Offensive Success Rate · 36.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 31.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Sam Houston pass game
CLEAR EDGESam Houston offenseTexas Tech defense
Sam Houston gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Texas Tech allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas Tech.
Passing Success Rate · 34.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 32.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Texas Tech disruption vs Sam Houston
CLEAR EDGESam Houston disruption allowedTexas Tech disruption created
Sam Houston avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Texas Tech creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas Tech.
Havoc Rate allowed · 20.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 23.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Sam Houston team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Texas Tech team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.