Overall team quality
Strong Houston advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
HoustonatGeorgia Southern
Houston42
Georgia Southern28
CALLED
SharpTake projected Houston at 62%. Houston won.
ProjectedHouston by 4.0
ActualHouston by 14
Difference10.0 pts
Market spreadHouston -17.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Georgia Southern +17.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Houston 62%Georgia Southern 38%
SharpTake projects Houston to win.
HoustonProjected winner
62%Win probability
Houston by 4.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Houston
Houston's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Houston. Houston also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Georgia Southern's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Houston advantage
Last season's results
Georgia Southern offset
Current season's results
Georgia Southern offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Houston staying on schedule
EDGEHouston offenseGeorgia Southern defense
Houston gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia Southern allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Houston.
Offensive Success Rate · 42.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 48.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Houston run game
EDGEHouston offenseGeorgia Southern defense
Houston gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia Southern allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Houston.
Rushing Success Rate · 40.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 51.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Houston pass game
EDGEHouston offenseGeorgia Southern defense
Houston gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Georgia Southern allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Houston.
Passing Success Rate · 44.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 47.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Houston team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Georgia Southern team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.