Overall team quality
Strong Kansas advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
Middle TennesseeatKansas
Middle Tennessee0
Kansas55
CALLED
SharpTake projected Kansas at 83%. Kansas won.
ProjectedKansas by 15.5
ActualKansas by 55
Difference39.5 pts
Market spreadKansas -20.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Middle Tennessee +20.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Middle Tennessee 17%Kansas 83%
SharpTake projects Kansas to win.
KansasProjected winner
83%Win probability
Kansas by 15.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Kansas
Kansas's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Kansas. Kansas also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while Middle Tennessee's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Kansas advantage
Last season's results
Middle Tennessee offset
Running-game efficiency
Slight Kansas advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Kansas staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEKansas offenseMiddle Tennessee defense
Kansas gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Middle Tennessee allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Kansas.
Offensive Success Rate · 48.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Kansas run game
EDGEKansas offenseMiddle Tennessee defense
Kansas gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Middle Tennessee allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Kansas.
Rushing Success Rate · 51.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 40.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Kansas pass game
EDGEKansas offenseMiddle Tennessee defense
Kansas gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Middle Tennessee allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Kansas.
Passing Success Rate · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 48.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Middle Tennessee team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Kansas team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.