Overall team quality
Strong Arizona State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Hawai‘iatArizona State
Hawai‘i12
Arizona State30
CALLED
SharpTake projected Arizona State at 79%. Arizona State won.
ProjectedArizona State by 13.0
ActualArizona State by 18
Difference5.0 pts
Market spreadArizona State -20.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Hawai‘i +20.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Hawai‘i 21%Arizona State 79%
SharpTake projects Arizona State to win.
Arizona StateProjected winner
79%Win probability
Arizona State by 13.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Arizona State
Arizona State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Arizona State. Arizona State also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Hawai'i's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Arizona State advantage
Current season's results
Hawai'i offset
Recent scoring performance
Hawai'i offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Run game
NO EDGEHawai‘i offenseArizona State defense
Hawai‘i gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Arizona State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 38.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 41.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Pass game
NO EDGEArizona State offenseHawai‘i defense
Arizona State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Hawai‘i allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 38.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 40.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explosive plays
NO EDGEHawai‘i offenseArizona State defense
Hawai‘i creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while Arizona State allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.329Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.218Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Hawai‘i team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Arizona State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.