SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 7

Notre DameatBYU

Sat, Oct. 17 · 7:30 PM ET · LaVell Edwards Stadium

Notre Dame24
BYU28
MISSED

SharpTake projected Notre Dame at 74%. BYU won.

ProjectedNotre Dame by 9.5
ActualBYU by 4
Difference13.5 pts
Market spreadNotre Dame -10.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: BYU +10.5

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Notre Dame to win.

Notre DameProjected winner
74%Win probability
Notre Dame by 9.5Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Notre Dame pass game

EDGE
Notre Dame offenseBYU defense

Notre Dame gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while BYU allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Notre Dame.

Passing Success Rate · 49.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 39.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Notre Dame explosive plays

EDGE
Notre Dame offenseBYU defense

Notre Dame creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while BYU allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Notre Dame.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.497Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.203Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Notre Dame finishing drives

EDGE
Notre Dame offenseBYU defense

Notre Dame scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while BYU allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Notre Dame.

Points per scoring opportunity · 4.79 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.29 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Notre Dame team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. BYU team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Notre Dame position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
BYU position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET

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