Overall team quality
BYU advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 2
ArizonaatBYU
Arizona17
BYU28
CALLED
SharpTake projected BYU at 78%. BYU won.
ProjectedBYU by 13.0
ActualBYU by 11
Difference2.0 pts
Market spreadBYU -7
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: BYU -7
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Arizona 22%BYU 78%
SharpTake projects BYU to win.
BYUProjected winner
78%Win probability
BYU by 13.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans BYU
BYU's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors BYU. BYU also has the edge in current season's scoring performance and recent scoring performance, while Arizona's record from last season pushes the other way.
Current season's scoring performance
BYU advantage
Recent scoring performance
BYU advantage
Last season's results
Arizona offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
BYU pass game
EDGEBYU offenseArizona defense
BYU gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Arizona allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arizona.
Passing Success Rate · 44.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 33.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
BYU explosive plays
EDGEBYU offenseArizona defense
BYU creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Arizona allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arizona.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.170Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.181Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Arizona disruption vs BYU
EDGEBYU disruption allowedArizona disruption created
BYU avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Arizona creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arizona.
Havoc Rate allowed · 13.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 20.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Arizona team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
BYU team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.